MTK Budapest vs Gyor
NB I., Hungary · 2026-09-20 · 17:00 CET
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WWLWWThe score model made a Gyor win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: MTK Budapest 1.27 – 1.95 Gyor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest win | 23.7% | 43.1% | -19.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 25.0% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Gyor win | 52.4% | 31.8% | +20.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | 63.5% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.3% | 43.2% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 65.4% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 43.5% | -6.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: MTK Budapest 41.7 / Gyor 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open MTK Budapest vs Gyor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.