Zalaegerszegi vs Ferencvaros
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-17 · 17:30 CET
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DWWWDThe score model made a Ferencvaros win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zalaegerszegi 1.02 – 1.70 Ferencvaros.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zalaegerszegi win | 21.4% | 17.0% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 23.1% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Ferencvaros win | 51.8% | 59.9% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | 59.0% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | 38.6% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 56.0% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.7% | 40.2% | -4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zalaegerszegi 43 / Ferencvaros 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.