Debrecen vs Nyiregyhaza
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-09 · 17:30 CET
WDDDW
LWLDLThe score model made a Debrecen win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Debrecen 1.85 – 1.13 Nyiregyhaza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debrecen win | 52.9% | 40.4% | +12.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 27.4% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Nyiregyhaza win | 21.9% | 32.2% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 52.7% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 31.9% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 57.1% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 36.0% | +1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Debrecen 42.7 / Nyiregyhaza 34.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.