Kisvarda vs Ujpest
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-08 · 17:30 CET
LLDDW
WDLWDThe score model made a Kisvarda win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:4 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kisvarda 1.43 – 1.24 Ujpest.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kisvarda win | 40.1% | 36.3% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 28.0% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Ujpest win | 31.1% | 35.7% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 53.1% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 32.9% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 58.0% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 36.2% | +1.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kisvarda 31.8 / Ujpest 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.