MTK Budapest vs Puskas Academy
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-07 · 17:30 CET
LDWDL
WWWLLThe score model made a Puskas Academy win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: MTK Budapest 1.49 – 1.57 Puskas Academy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest win | 34.9% | 34.9% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.8% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Puskas Academy win | 38.5% | 38.3% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 56.1% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.7% | 35.3% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 59.6% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.7% | 38.2% | +3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: MTK Budapest 40.2 / Puskas Academy 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.