Csakvari vs Karcagi
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-11-08 · 15:00 CET
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DLLLLThe score model makes a Csakvari win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Csakvari win — 45.4% vs 30.5% implied (+14.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Csakvari 1.55 – 1.23 Karcagi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Csakvari win | 45.4% | 30.5% | +14.9% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 26.4% | -2.5% |
| Karcagi win | 30.8% | 43.2% | -12.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 53.1% | -0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 32.8% | -2.4% |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 56.8% | -1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 37.3% | -4.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Csakvari 42.7 / Karcagi 27.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Csakvari vs Karcagi in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.