Kozarmisleny SE vs Ajka
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
DLWLW
LDLWDThe score model makes a Kozarmisleny SE win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.3% vs 70.8% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kozarmisleny SE 1.25 – 1.18 Ajka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kozarmisleny SE win | 38.8% | 37.5% | +1.3% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.5% | -1.4% |
| Ajka win | 35.0% | 34.9% | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 48.8% | -5.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.7% | 29.2% | -6.4% |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 54.1% | -5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 34.0% | -2.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kozarmisleny SE 42.8 / Ajka 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kozarmisleny SE vs Ajka in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.