Kecskemeti TE vs Nagykanizsa
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
WWLWW
WLLLWThe score model makes a Kecskemeti TE win the most likely outcome at 77%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kecskemeti TE win — 76.6% vs 69.6% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kecskemeti TE 2.44 – 0.68 Nagykanizsa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kecskemeti TE win | 76.6% | 69.6% | +7.0% |
| Draw | 14.7% | 18.7% | -4.0% |
| Nagykanizsa win | 8.8% | 11.8% | -3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | 60.5% | -0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.1% | 39.7% | -1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | 51.6% | -6.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.5% | 41.8% | +1.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kecskemeti TE 27.6 / Nagykanizsa 10.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kecskemeti TE vs Nagykanizsa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.