Kazincbarcika vs Soroksar
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-11-07 · 13:00 CET
LWDWW
DLWDLThe score model makes a Kazincbarcika win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kazincbarcika win — 51.5% vs 44.2% implied (+7.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kazincbarcika 1.67 – 1.09 Soroksar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kazincbarcika win | 51.5% | 44.2% | +7.3% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.8% | -2.7% |
| Soroksar win | 25.4% | 30.0% | -4.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 54.7% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 34.8% | -4.6% |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 58.0% | -4.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 37.9% | -2.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kazincbarcika 25.9 / Soroksar 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kazincbarcika vs Soroksar in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.