Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC
Super League, Greece · 2026-11-01 · 18:30 CET
WWLWW
WLLWWThe score model makes a Panathinaikos win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.5% vs 67.5% implied (+10.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Panathinaikos 1.43 – 0.94 AEK Athens FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos win | 46.2% | 41.6% | +4.6% |
| Draw | 31.2% | 27.9% | +3.3% |
| AEK Athens FC win | 22.6% | 30.5% | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 52.8% | -10.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | 32.5% | -10.9% |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 57.5% | -8.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 35.6% | -6.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Panathinaikos 37.6 / AEK Athens FC 16.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.