Panetolikos vs PAOK
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-20 · 20:00 CET
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LWWLWThe score model made a PAOK win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Panetolikos 0.74 – 1.83 PAOK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panetolikos win | 12.7% | 14.6% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 22.6% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| PAOK win | 61.5% | 62.8% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 52.6% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 31.9% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 49.5% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 36.0% | -0.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Panetolikos 40.2 / PAOK 37.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Panetolikos vs PAOK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.