Atromitos vs Kifisia
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-19 · 18:00 CET
LDDLL
DWWLWThe score model made an Atromitos win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atromitos 1.64 – 0.92 Kifisia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atromitos win | 52.4% | 42.5% | +9.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.6% | 29.7% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Kifisia win | 19.0% | 27.8% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 43.5% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 24.0% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 49.9% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 30.6% | +6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atromitos 39.7 / Kifisia 31.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Atromitos vs Kifisia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.