Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-13 · 20:30 CET
LDWWW
DLWWWThe score model makes a Panathinaikos win the most likely outcome at 65%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.5% vs 67.4% implied (+10.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Panathinaikos 1.81 – 0.60 Panetolikos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos win | 64.9% | 71.1% | -6.3% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 19.1% | +6.0% |
| Panetolikos win | 10.0% | 9.7% | +0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 53.2% | -9.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.5% | 32.6% | -10.1% |
| Both teams to score | 39.7% | 43.0% | -3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 36.7% | -7.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Panathinaikos 36.7 / Panetolikos 40 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.