Kifisia vs Levadiakos
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-13 · 20:00 CET
DWDLL
WLLLLThe score model makes a Levadiakos win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 58.3% vs 44.6% implied (+13.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kifisia 1.45 – 1.58 Levadiakos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kifisia win | 33.2% | 39.1% | -5.9% |
| Draw | 28.0% | 29.9% | -1.9% |
| Levadiakos win | 38.8% | 30.9% | +7.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 44.6% | +13.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 24.7% | +11.2% |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 50.8% | +11.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.0% | 30.2% | +4.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kifisia 30.7 / Levadiakos 33 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.