Panathinaikos vs Kifisia
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-10 · 20:15 CET
LLDWW
LDWDLThe score model makes a Panathinaikos win the most likely outcome at 70%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.2% vs 63.6% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Panathinaikos 2.14 – 0.66 Kifisia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos win | 70.0% | 74.8% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 21.3% | 16.5% | +4.8% |
| Kifisia win | 8.7% | 8.6% | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 57.8% | -4.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 36.4% | -5.6% |
| Both teams to score | 44.2% | 43.8% | +0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 39.2% | -0.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Panathinaikos 35.7 / Kifisia 29.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.