Panathinaikos vs Kifisia
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-10 · 20:15 CET
WWWLW
DWWLWThe score model made a Panathinaikos win the most likely outcome at 70%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Panathinaikos 2.14 – 0.66 Kifisia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos win | 70.0% | 74.8% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.3% | 16.5% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Kifisia win | 8.7% | 8.6% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 57.8% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 36.4% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.2% | 43.8% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 39.2% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Panathinaikos 35.7 / Kifisia 29.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Panathinaikos vs Kifisia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.