PAOK vs Levadiakos
Super League, Greece · 2026-08-23 · 20:00 CET
DDWWL
WLLLLThe score model made a PAOK win the most likely outcome at 69%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PAOK 2.48 – 0.96 Levadiakos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK win | 69.5% | 67.9% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.1% | 20.0% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Levadiakos win | 11.4% | 12.1% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | 56.3% | +10.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.1% | 35.1% | +9.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | 48.9% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 38.4% | +1.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PAOK 35.4 / Levadiakos 31.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.