OFI Crete vs Volos
Super League, Greece · 2026-08-23 · 18:30 CET
LWWLW
LLLDDThe score model made an OFI Crete win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: OFI Crete 1.82 – 1.08 Volos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFI Crete win | 53.1% | 42.3% | +10.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 29.2% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Volos win | 20.6% | 28.6% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 49.5% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 29.3% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 55.2% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 33.7% | +7.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: OFI Crete 35.6 / Volos 35.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.