Marko vs Athens Kallithea
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-09-12 · 15:00 CET
LWWDW
WDDWWThe score model makes a Marko win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 23%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 69.4% vs 57.2% implied (+12.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Marko 1.01 – 0.66 Athens Kallithea.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marko win | 43.1% | 37.6% | +5.5% |
| Draw | 33.5% | 33.0% | +0.5% |
| Athens Kallithea win | 23.3% | 29.4% | -6.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 49.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23.5% | 34.5% | -11.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8.9% | 18.1% | -9.2% |
| Both teams to score | 30.6% | 42.8% | -12.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.0% | 24.6% | -3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Marko 15.3 / Athens Kallithea 23.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.