PAOK B vs Olympiacos Piraeus B
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-09-09 · 15:00 CET
WDWWD
WLLLDThe score model made a PAOK B win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PAOK B 1.79 – 1.24 Olympiacos Piraeus B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK B win | 50.5% | 43.0% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 29.0% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Olympiacos Piraeus B win | 26.5% | 28.0% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 45.8% | +12.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 26.5% | +9.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 51.4% | +7.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 32.1% | +7.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PAOK B 28.4 / Olympiacos Piraeus B 20 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.