Lubeck vs Werder Bremen II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-10-31 · 14:00 CET
DWDLD
LDLWLThe score model made a Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 2:5 (HT 1:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lubeck 1.78 – 1.41 Werder Bremen II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lubeck win | 45.7% | 43.7% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 24.9% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Werder Bremen II win | 30.0% | 31.4% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 56.1% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.5% | 33.3% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | 58.9% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.4% | 43.4% | +2.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lubeck 31.4 / Werder Bremen II 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lubeck vs Werder Bremen II in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.