Norderstedt vs Werder Bremen II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-20 · 14:00 CET
DLWLL
WLDLWThe score model made a Werder Bremen II win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 2:5 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norderstedt 1.74 – 1.97 Werder Bremen II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norderstedt win | 34.4% | 39.6% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.0% | 25.0% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Werder Bremen II win | 43.5% | 35.3% | +8.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.6% | 69.0% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.8% | 50.3% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 71.2% | 70.6% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 48.4% | -6.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norderstedt 46.2 / Werder Bremen II 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Norderstedt vs Werder Bremen II in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.