Hannoverscher SC vs Hamburger SV II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-20 · 16:00 CET
LWWDL
WLWLLThe score model made a Hamburger SV II win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hannoverscher SC 1.57 – 1.96 Hamburger SV II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannoverscher SC win | 30.8% | 40.8% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 25.5% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Hamburger SV II win | 46.8% | 33.7% | +13.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.5% | 67.6% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.0% | 49.3% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 68.4% | 69.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 47.2% | -5.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hannoverscher SC 29.3 / Hamburger SV II 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.