Lubeck vs Hamburger SV II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-26 · 19:00 CET
DWDLD
LLWLWThe score model made a Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lubeck 1.65 – 1.39 Hamburger SV II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lubeck win | 43.1% | 48.3% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 24.5% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Hamburger SV II win | 31.7% | 27.2% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 62.9% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.3% | 43.0% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | 63.6% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.8% | 43.6% | +1.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lubeck 36.2 / Hamburger SV II 45.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.