St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-16 · 14:00 CET
LWLDL
LLWDLThe score model made a Werder Bremen II win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Pauli II 1.63 – 1.95 Werder Bremen II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli II win | 31.9% | 36.6% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 26.3% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Werder Bremen II win | 44.9% | 37.1% | +7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | 64.1% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.1% | 44.5% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 69.7% | 66.7% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.2% | 44.1% | +0.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Pauli II 44 / Werder Bremen II 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.