Hamburger SV II vs Drochtersen/Assel
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-16 · 14:00 CET
LLWLW
LWLWWThe score model made a Drochtersen/Assel win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:4) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hamburger SV II 1.40 – 1.65 Drochtersen/Assel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV II win | 31.8% | 24.9% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 24.9% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Drochtersen/Assel win | 42.6% | 50.1% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 60.7% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 40.9% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 61.9% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 42.8% | -6.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hamburger SV II 44 / Drochtersen/Assel 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.