Jeddeloh vs St. Pauli II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-12 · 19:00 CET
WLDLL
LWLDLThe score model made a Jeddeloh win the most likely outcome at 56%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeddeloh 2.12 – 1.29 St. Pauli II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeddeloh win | 55.7% | 45.1% | +10.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.2% | 25.8% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| St. Pauli II win | 22.1% | 29.1% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.2% | 63.2% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.4% | 43.7% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | 64.9% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.8% | 43.9% | +2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeddeloh 43.9 / St. Pauli II 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.