Drochtersen/Assel vs Hannover II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-12 · 19:30 CET
LWLWW
WLDDWThe score model made a Drochtersen/Assel win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Drochtersen/Assel 1.59 – 1.46 Hannover II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drochtersen/Assel win | 39.9% | 44.9% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.4% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Hannover II win | 34.3% | 29.7% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 63.6% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.3% | 44.0% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 65.3% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 43.6% | -3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Drochtersen/Assel 43.3 / Hannover II 32 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.