St. Pauli II vs Bremer
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-09 · 14:00 CET
LWLDL
DLLDLThe score model made a Bremer win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Pauli II 1.34 – 1.68 Bremer.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli II win | 29.7% | 44.3% | -14.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 26.5% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Bremer win | 44.8% | 29.2% | +15.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | 57.3% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% | 37.4% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 60.1% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.5% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Pauli II 42.7 / Bremer 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.