Schoningen vs Norderstedt
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-09 · 15:00 CET
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WLLWDThe score model made a Schoningen win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 76%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Schoningen 2.09 – 1.89 Norderstedt.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schoningen win | 42.9% | 37.0% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.8% | 24.5% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Norderstedt win | 35.3% | 38.4% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.8% | 65.7% | +10.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56.2% | 45.8% | +10.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 74.9% | 67.1% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 45.6% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Schoningen 23.3 / Norderstedt 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.