Phonix Lubeck vs Jeddeloh
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-09 · 14:00 CET
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WLDLLThe score model made a Phonix Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Phonix Lubeck 1.86 – 1.35 Jeddeloh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phonix Lubeck win | 48.6% | 54.0% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.2% | 23.7% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Jeddeloh win | 27.2% | 22.3% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | 64.3% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.8% | 44.8% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 63.5% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Phonix Lubeck 43.1 / Jeddeloh 43.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.