Bremer vs Hannover II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-01 · 15:30 CET
DLLDL
WLDDWThe score model made a Hannover II win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bremer 1.42 – 1.64 Hannover II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bremer win | 32.5% | 24.4% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.0% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Hannover II win | 42.1% | 49.6% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 59.4% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.7% | 39.8% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | 61.4% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 41.3% | +1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bremer 42.4 / Hannover II 30.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.