Werder Bremen II vs VfB Oldenburg
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-07-31 · 19:00 CET
LLWDL
DWWWLThe score model made a VfB Oldenburg win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 74%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Werder Bremen II 1.70 – 2.18 VfB Oldenburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen II win | 29.9% | 28.2% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.6% | 24.8% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| VfB Oldenburg win | 48.5% | 47.0% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.5% | 67.8% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54.4% | 49.1% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 73.1% | 68.3% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.9% | 47.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Werder Bremen II 37.9 / VfB Oldenburg 39.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.