Bayer Leverkusen W vs Hamburger SV W
Frauen-Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-11-07 · 14:00 CET
LWWDL
LWLLDThe score model makes a Bayer Leverkusen W win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 60.3% vs 54.8% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen W 2.40 – 1.08 Hamburger SV W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen W win | 66.3% | 68.2% | -2.0% |
| Draw | 18.3% | 18.5% | -0.3% |
| Hamburger SV W win | 15.5% | 13.2% | +2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | 64.4% | +3.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.9% | 44.1% | +1.9% |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 54.8% | +5.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 44.6% | -3.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Bayer Leverkusen W 32.6 / Hamburger SV W 21.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.