Wolfsburg W vs Hamburger SV W
Frauen-Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-04 · 13:45 CET
WWWLW
LDLWLThe score model made a Wolfsburg W win the most likely outcome at 85%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 79%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wolfsburg W 3.37 – 0.84 Hamburger SV W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg W win | 84.5% | 81.4% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 9.8% | 11.6% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Hamburger SV W win | 5.7% | 7.0% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.2% | 73.8% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60.7% | 55.6% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 51.1% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 52.5% | -15.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wolfsburg W 31.9 / Hamburger SV W 20.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.