Wehen vs TSV Havelse
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-11-07 · 14:00 CET
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LDDWDThe score model makes a Wehen win the most likely outcome at 71%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 46.2% vs 40.9% implied (+5.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wehen 2.44 – 0.88 TSV Havelse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wehen win | 71.4% | 66.7% | +4.7% |
| Draw | 17.5% | 18.7% | -1.2% |
| TSV Havelse win | 11.2% | 14.6% | -3.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 66.7% | -2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.4% | 46.3% | -3.8% |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 59.1% | -5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.1% | 46.1% | -3.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Wehen 45.3 / TSV Havelse 32.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Wehen vs TSV Havelse in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.