Wehen vs Duisburg
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-20 · 19:30 CET
LWWDW
WWWDLThe score model made a Duisburg win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wehen 1.36 – 1.42 Duisburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wehen win | 35.4% | 30.6% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 27.2% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Duisburg win | 38.1% | 42.2% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 52.8% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 32.6% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 56.9% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 36.1% | -6.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wehen 43.1 / Duisburg 37.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Wehen vs Duisburg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.