Stuttgart II vs Regensburg
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-09-19 · 14:00 CET
DDWWL
DWDDLThe score model made a Stuttgart II win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 3:3 (HT 2:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stuttgart II 1.63 – 1.49 Regensburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart II win | 40.5% | 39.4% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 24.6% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Regensburg win | 34.6% | 36.0% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | 65.2% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.0% | 45.6% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 66.5% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 45.0% | -13.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stuttgart II 40.8 / Regensburg 34.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Stuttgart II vs Regensburg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.