Stuttgart II vs Viktoria Koln
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-08-16 · 19:30 CET
LWLLW
DLWWLThe score model made a Stuttgart II win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stuttgart II 1.58 – 1.45 Viktoria Koln.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart II win | 39.9% | 41.9% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 25.6% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Viktoria Koln win | 34.2% | 32.6% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 63.2% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 43.1% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 65.3% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 43.8% | -11.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stuttgart II 38.4 / Viktoria Koln 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.