Hansa Rostock vs Mannheim
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-08-16 · 13:30 CET
WWDWD
LWDLLThe score model made a Hansa Rostock win the most likely outcome at 60%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hansa Rostock 2.14 – 1.10 Mannheim.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock win | 60.5% | 55.5% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 22.4% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Mannheim win | 17.8% | 22.1% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 65.9% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.7% | 46.0% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | 64.0% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 45.4% | +0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hansa Rostock 38.4 / Mannheim 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.