RW Essen vs TSV Havelse
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-08-15 · 14:00 CET
WLWDW
LLLWLThe score model made an RW Essen win the most likely outcome at 68%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 82%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RW Essen 3.01 – 1.48 TSV Havelse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW Essen win | 68.0% | 69.6% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 16.2% | 16.7% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| TSV Havelse win | 15.8% | 13.7% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.5% | 72.6% | +9.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 65.5% | 53.4% | +12.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 73.8% | 62.4% | +11.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.7% | 50.5% | -1.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RW Essen 47.6 / TSV Havelse 25.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.