Hoffenheim II vs Hansa Rostock
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-08-09 · 13:30 CET
LLWWL
WWDWDThe score model made a Hansa Rostock win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hoffenheim II 1.52 – 1.99 Hansa Rostock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim II win | 28.9% | 23.5% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.1% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Hansa Rostock win | 48.1% | 53.4% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.1% | 65.8% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.6% | 45.7% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 68.2% | 64.8% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.5% | 45.2% | +8.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hoffenheim II 25.2 / Hansa Rostock 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.