Alemannia Aachen vs Verl
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-08-09 · 19:30 CET
WWDLW
WLLLWThe score model made an Alemannia Aachen win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 4:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alemannia Aachen 1.70 – 1.49 Verl.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alemannia Aachen win | 42.1% | 43.2% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 24.9% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Verl win | 32.9% | 31.9% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 64.7% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.4% | 44.8% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | 65.8% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 44.6% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alemannia Aachen 37.9 / Verl 47.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.