Viktoria Koln vs Regensburg
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-08-08 · 14:00 CET
DLWWL
LWLLLThe score model made a Viktoria Koln win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:5 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Viktoria Koln 1.48 – 1.14 Regensburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktoria Koln win | 43.9% | 40.2% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.2% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Regensburg win | 28.3% | 33.6% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 59.2% | -10.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 38.8% | -12.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 62.5% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 40.9% | -11.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Viktoria Koln 47.3 / Regensburg 31.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.