TSV Havelse vs Stuttgart II
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-08-08 · 14:00 CET
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LWLLWThe score model made a Stuttgart II win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 75%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: TSV Havelse 1.91 – 2.00 Stuttgart II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSV Havelse win | 37.1% | 29.8% | +7.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.2% | 24.1% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Stuttgart II win | 40.7% | 46.0% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.8% | 67.5% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54.8% | 47.8% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 74.2% | 67.9% | +6.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.0% | 46.8% | -11.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: TSV Havelse 25.3 / Stuttgart II 38 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.