Nurnberg vs Darmstadt
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-11-07 · 13:00 CET
WWDDL
LWLDDThe score model makes a Nurnberg win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Nurnberg win — 59.6% vs 54.5% implied (+5.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nurnberg 2.13 – 1.14 Darmstadt.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 59.6% | 54.5% | +5.0% |
| Draw | 21.2% | 22.7% | -1.5% |
| Darmstadt win | 19.3% | 22.7% | -3.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% | 63.3% | +0.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.5% | 42.6% | -1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 62.0% | -1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.3% | 42.1% | +2.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Nurnberg 43.6 / Darmstadt 39.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nurnberg vs Darmstadt in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.