Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-11-07 · 13:00 CET
LDLDW
DWWLWThe score model makes a Holstein Kiel win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.2% vs 61.9% implied (+9.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Holstein Kiel 1.47 – 1.24 Arminia Bielefeld.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 42.1% | 40.1% | +2.1% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.0% | +0.6% |
| Arminia Bielefeld win | 31.3% | 33.9% | -2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 59.2% | -8.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 38.1% | -9.3% |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 62.0% | -6.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 39.1% | -5.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Holstein Kiel 33.9 / Arminia Bielefeld 30.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.