SG Dynamo Dresden vs Greuther Furth
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-11-06 · 18:30 CET
DLDWL
DDLWLThe score model makes an SG Dynamo Dresden win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Greuther Furth win — 30.8% vs 25.8% implied (+5.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SG Dynamo Dresden 1.78 – 1.44 Greuther Furth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SG Dynamo Dresden win | 45.3% | 49.4% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 24.8% | -1.0% |
| Greuther Furth win | 30.8% | 25.8% | +5.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | 61.7% | +0.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.1% | 41.3% | -1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | 61.9% | +1.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.7% | 42.2% | +1.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: SG Dynamo Dresden 27.6 / Greuther Furth 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.