Greuther Furth vs Magdeburg
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-18 · 18:30 CET
DDLWL
WDWLWThe score model made a Greuther Furth win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Greuther Furth 1.69 – 1.68 Magdeburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 38.7% | 32.4% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.6% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Magdeburg win | 38.1% | 42.0% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.4% | 63.5% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.5% | 43.3% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.5% | 65.9% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.1% | 43.3% | +4.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Greuther Furth 45.1 / Magdeburg 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Greuther Furth vs Magdeburg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.