SG Dynamo Dresden vs Darmstadt
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-16 · 13:30 CET
WLWLL
LDLLLThe score model made an SG Dynamo Dresden win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SG Dynamo Dresden 1.66 – 1.50 Darmstadt.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG Dynamo Dresden win | 41.1% | 45.5% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.6% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Darmstadt win | 34.1% | 28.9% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | 59.1% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.7% | 38.2% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | 61.6% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.5% | 39.8% | +8.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SG Dynamo Dresden 23.3 / Darmstadt 37 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.