Braunschweig vs Bochum
2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-14 · 18:30 CET
LWLLL
WLWLWThe score model made a Bochum win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Braunschweig 1.26 – 1.33 Bochum.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 34.5% | 39.5% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 27.6% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Bochum win | 37.6% | 32.9% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 54.1% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 33.8% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 58.6% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 36.5% | +0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Braunschweig 42.7 / Bochum 23.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.